September 30, 2014
Portland Price Trends
09-02-13 01-01-14 08-01-14 09-23-14 09-30-14
#1 SWW (bu) 7.40 7.03 6.92 6.50 6.55
White Club 7.60 7.63 8.17 9.35 9.40
HRS 14% 8.24 8.10 8.31 8.74 8.83
HRW 11.5% 8.75 7.62 7.62 7.17 7.13
#2 Corn (ton) 280.00 186.00 185.00 174.00 173.00
#2 Barley 180.00 155.00 175.00 150.00 150.00
Wheat...Basis levels continue to hold ground for the west coast wheat
markets, buffering some of the drift in futures. Hard red spring basis
at 350 over stands a dollar shy of the all-time high set in 2007/08, and
the season average of 217 over is outpacing the annual average high set
during the 1993/94 marketing year of 205 over.
Crop Report...USDA confirmed the impact of dry conditions across the
PNW growing region this year, as the 3-state wheat production came in at
the lowest level in a decade. At 245 mb, the PNW crop was off 54 mb from
last year and 20% below the 5-year average. Washington bore the brunt of
the loss, with an 85 mb crop that was down 30 mb from last year. Winter
wheat yields were 25% under 5-year averages, the lowest since 1992, and
spring wheat yields of 38 bpa were the worst in 33 years and 5 bpa above
the historic drought year of 1977. Idaho, hit with rain-damaged spring
crops, was the bright spot from a production standpoint with an overall
crop of 58 mb that was 1 mb off the 5-year average and yields 2 bpa off
the 5-year average. Oregon production and yields were 15% below average.
Shipments...US wheat exports show hard red spring wheat continues to
carry the torch on a week-to-week basis, topping all classes again last
week with 7.5 mb to outpace the 4-week average and now sets 27% ahead of
last year. Soft red winter shipments bounced back to 5.6 mb last week
but remain 10% off the average pace. Soft white shipments drifted again
to just 1.1 mb and holding right at the 10-year average pace, while hard
red winter recorded 6.1 mb but lags nearly 30% behind average.
Crop Progress...Winter wheat plantings made modest progress the past
week, with Washington putting in nearly 10% of the crop to stand at 66%
and 5% behind average. Oregon added 2% and is 6% behind the average at
22% complete, while Idaho planted another 20% and stands 6% ahead of 5-
year percentages at 49% complete. Dry conditions have emergence at 15%
behind average for Washington.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
Copyright 2014 DTN/Telvent. All Rights Reserved.
Your local weather forecast from DTN can be sent to your email every morning free through DTN Snapshot