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October 28, 2014
                                   Portland Price Trends
                 10-01-13    01-01-14    09-01-14    10-21-14    10-28-14
#1 SWW (bu)         7.25        7.03        7.00        6.90        7.00
White Club          7.25        7.63        9.30        9.85        9.95
HRS 14%             8.28        8.10        8.72        9.19        9.25
HRW 11.5%           8.45        7.62        7.57        7.77        7.67
#2 Corn (ton)     195.00      186.00      178.00      184.00      187.00
#2 Barley         155.00      155.00      165.00      150.00      150.00

   Wheat...The month-long uptrend in futures continues to support higher
wheat prices on the west coast, moving white wheat back to the $7 level
today.  Basis levels remain relatively firm on white wheat and hard red
spring, posting at 170 and 350 over Chicago and Minneapolis today, while
hard red winter basis has retreated a dime from recent highs to close at
165 over today.   
   Shipments..Weekly export inspections showed the slowest pace of export
loadings for the year, registering less than 8 mb to put the year-to-date
total at 382 mb and 35% behind last year. Hard red spring was top shipper
but came in at only half the four-week average with 3.8 mb.  White wheat
moved only 370,000 bushels, with hard red winter at 1.7 mb and soft red
winter just clearing the 1 mb mark.                                             
   Crop Progress..The first full assessment of the PNW winter wheat crop
shows the impact of persistent dry conditions, as the 3-state index came
in at 335/500, nearly 50 points under the 5-year average. Washington has
the biggest decline relative to last year, reporting in at 306 compared
to 371 last year, with only 24% of the crop rating good to excellent and
15% rated poor to very poor.  Oregon stands at 329, 43 points under last
year, with Idaho at 397 and 9 points below a year ago. In sharp contrast
is Montana, reflecting an above-average moisture profile that puts their
crop 60 points ahead of last year at 405/500.  US ratings as a whole are
at 360 versus 363 last year, with the Kansas crop off to a decent start
for the second straight year.
                                      -Norm Ruhoff  Contributing Analyst

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